LATIDIA · Ciberseguridad

Basta con una invención: una noticia falsa cambia las predicciones de los sistemas de predicción de los LLM

arXiv:2611.15102v1 Tipo de anuncio: nuevo Resumen: Los LLM se utilizan cada vez más para realizar pronósticos, y los mejores sistemas de pronóstico recogen noticias como evidencias para reforzar sus predicciones. Esto también los expone a ataques. Nosotros...

La noticia

arXiv:2611.15102v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLMs are increasingly used for forecasting, and the best forecasting systems retrieve news as evidence to strengthen their predictions. This also opens them to attack. We study the weakest attacker of this kind, who knows only the forecasting question and publishes fabricated news articles, with no access to the model, the retriever or its queries. We evaluate how far this attack reaches on stock questions and real prediction-market questions. Once the article is in the model's context, it reverses 74% to 82% of the forecasts that opposed it, on every frontier model we tested. The model cannot verify the fabrication and follows it anyway. Retrieval